The IPO game

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Loss Leaders
Below are companies with the largest losses at IPO. They are ranked by trailing EBITDA.

A poor guide to future performance (Link)
This chart shows US-listed companies (>$1B) that had IPOs since 2000. They are grouped based on their 1-day price change on offering day ("pop"). Many of the companies with large price increases on the first day had large declines subsequently. It's clear that the direction of first-day moves is irrelevant for determining a stock's future performance.

German chipmaker Infineon Technologies soared 127% on its launch day but it is now trading at about 50% of its IPO price. Shares of Mastercard which actually declined on opening day in 2006 are now up over 6000%.

Advice from Warren Buffet on IPO's (Link)
At the most recent Berkshire annual meeting Buffet went on to explain how he and Munger have not bought shares in an IPO since 1955, when they bought 100 shares of Ford. Buffet believes buying new offerings during hot periods in the market is not something that the average person should think about at all.

Buffett reminds investors that just because a strategy works for one investor doesn't make it a good idea. He says, "There always can be scenarios in which a company goes on to grow in price post-IPO. I mean, there was a pair of dice at the Desert Inn one time many years ago - they had them in a little case - that came up 32 times in a row - 4 billion to 1, maybe a little bit over. So you can go around making dumb bets and win. It's not something you want to take as a lifetime policy, though. I worry much more about the things that I do than the things that I don't do. I missed all kinds of opportunities in my life. You just want to make sure that you're on the side of the house when you bet rather than bet against the house."

Buffett advises investors to think about the reasons they're investing in a company at a certain valuation.

Weekend catch-up

Your weekend edge - catch up with this week's readings:

Get the Edge - Click here to view an archive of investment education, daily musings, book recommendations and more.

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Great investors are investment philosophers (Link)
Think back to your education. Remember your university or secondary school days. What did you learn then that you still use today? Does any of it help you in your professional life? Many could claim that nothing they learned at university helps them at their job today. If you’re in finance how could your chemistry skills of calculating the polarization of sodium D1 help with investing?

If we think about this further many of us could claim the best skill we developed in university was how to solve problems. Famous mathematician, Carl Jacobi once said: “Invert, always invert.” He said that many complex problems can be solved if you invert them and think about the solution you want to find and then work backward to your current situation. When you do that, you often find the quickest and most effective solution to seemingly intractable problems. In mathematics and physics, this inversion technique is applied all the time, but seldom is it used when assessing business problems or new investment opportunities.

Research analysts and fund managers typically have been trained in finance and learned everything about financial statement analysis and know every little detail about the companies they cover. Many of these fund managers are interviewed on television and usually share their “wisdom” on why they love growth or income stocks or why they think rates will be hiked or not. Put another way, they talk their book. Are they good problem-solvers or are they just book smart?

How do people like Warren Buffett, Howard Marks or Benjamin Graham stand out? They don’t focus on any of these technical details. They think about the fundamental long-term drivers, and they have developed investment techniques that can adapt to a broad range of problems to understand the underlying market dynamics. These are investment philosophers.

A lesson on compounding (Link)

Many young people find it very hard to stick with a long-term savings plan. For many, it’s likely your savings will trump your investment gains for the first couple of decades. And then, all of a sudden, your investment returns take over once you’ve built up a decent-sized nest egg.

Let’s pretend someone starts out saving 10% of their salary from age 25 to age 65. They start out making $40,000 and that salary grows at 3% a year (with inflation). Let also assume they earn a 6% annual return. Here is the math:

By 40, they have saved over $80,000 with the overall balance growing to $125,000 from investment growth. This means that 65% of the balance comes from saving alone. As years go by that ratio begins to flip. 

By age 65, the contributions from saving equal 31% of your portfolio and 69% come from your investment growth on 6% annual growth. Small gains can add up over time even though it may not feel like it at the moment.

Less is more: Chick-fil-A (Link)

Founded in 1967 by entrepreneur Truett Cathy, Chick-fil-A’s signature item has been its breaded chicken-breast sandwich and its relatively simple menu is what makes it stand out. Five decades later, the closely held company this year is poised to become the third-biggest U.S. restaurant chain by sales. Sales from Chick-fil-A’s restaurants have tripled over the past decade, reaching $10.2 billion in 2018.

What’s their secret? It's their slow and steady, quality over quantity approach. This combined with their focus on ensuring all customers, employees, and restaurant operators are treated with care and respect. Among U.S. restaurants that serve chicken, Chick-fil-A’s market share rose to 33% last year from 18% in 2009, while the market share of Yum Brands Inc.’s KFC chain fell to 15% from 29% in that time.

Since, 2015, Chick-fil-A has been the top-rated fast-food restaurant on the American Customer Satisfaction Index. This is in large part due to their restaurant operators who help assure consistent food quality and service. The average McDonald’s franchisee owns half a dozen stores while most of Chick-fil-A franchisees own one.

America's favorite supermarket: Wegmans (Link)

Wegmans Food Markets is a Rochester-based regional grocery chain with just over 90 stores and reported $8.3 billion in sales. Founded in 1916, this family-owned company is under the leadership of the 3rd and 4th generations of the Wegman family. The spirit of family extends to its customers, employees and into the community. It's not surprising that it's the most beloved supermarket in the US. According to the Harris Reputation Ranking survey, Wegman’s has the best corporate reputation among visible US businesses. In 2019 Wegmans beat out # 2 ranked Amazon.

There are many things that Wegmans does well but most of all they believe in putting employees first. They believe that in order to be a great place to shop, they must first be a great place to work. 

Cymbria day

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Cymbria’s 11th annual investors day!

Great food operators

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Less is more: Chick-fil-A (Link)
Founded in 1967 by entrepreneur Truett Cathy, Chick-fil-A’s signature item has been its breaded chicken-breast sandwich and its relatively simple menu is what makes it stand out. Five decades later, the closely held company this year is poised to become the third-biggest U.S. restaurant chain by sales. Sales from Chick-fil-A’s restaurants have tripled over the past decade, reaching $10.2 billion in 2018.

What’s their secret? It's their slow and steady, quality over quantity approach. This combined with their focus on ensuring all customers, employees, and restaurant operators are treated with care and respect. Among U.S. restaurants that serve chicken, Chick-fil-A’s market share rose to 33% last year from 18% in 2009, while the market share of Yum Brands Inc.’s KFC chain fell to 15% from 29% in that time.

Since, 2015, Chick-fil-A has been the top-rated fast-food restaurant on the American Customer Satisfaction Index. This is in large part due to their restaurant operators who help assure consistent food quality and service. The average McDonald’s franchisee owns half a dozen stores while most of Chick-fil-A franchisees own one.

America's favorite supermarket: Wegmans (Link)
Wegmans Food Markets is a Rochester-based regional grocery chain with just over 90 stores and reported $8.3 billion in sales. Founded in 1916, this family-owned company is under the leadership of the 3rd and 4th generations of the Wegman family. The spirit of family extends to its customers, employees and into the community. It's not surprising that it's the most beloved supermarket in the US. According to the Harris Reputation Ranking survey, Wegman’s has the best corporate reputation among visible US businesses. In 2019 Wegmans beat out # 2 ranked Amazon.

There are many things that Wegmans does well but most of all they believe in putting employees first. They believe that in order to be a great place to shop, they must first be a great place to work. 

Lessons on investing

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Great investors are investment philosophers (Link)
Think back to your education. Remember your university or secondary school days. What did you learn then that you still use today? Does any of it help you in your professional life? Many could claim that nothing they learned at university helps them at their job today. If you’re in finance how could your chemistry skills of calculating the polarization of sodium D1 help with investing?

If we think about this further many of us could claim the best skill we developed in university was how to solve problems. Famous mathematician, Carl Jacobi once said: “Invert, always invert.” He said that many complex problems can be solved if you invert them and think about the solution you want to find and then work backward to your current situation. When you do that, you often find the quickest and most effective solution to seemingly intractable problems. In mathematics and physics, this inversion technique is applied all the time, but seldom is it used when assessing business problems or new investment opportunities.

Research analysts and fund managers typically have been trained in finance and learned everything about financial statement analysis and know every little detail about the companies they cover. Many of these fund managers are interviewed on television and usually share their “wisdom” on why they love growth or income stocks or why they think rates will be hiked or not. Put another way, they talk their book. Are they good problem-solvers or are they just book smart?

How do people like Warren Buffett, Howard Marks or Benjamin Graham stand out? They don’t focus on any of these technical details. They think about the fundamental long-term drivers, and they have developed investment techniques that can adapt to a broad range of problems to understand the underlying market dynamics. These are investment philosophers.

A lesson on compounding (Link)

Many young people find it very hard to stick with a long-term savings plan. For many, it’s likely your savings will trump your investment gains for the first couple of decades. And then, all of a sudden, your investment returns take over once you’ve built up a decent-sized nest egg.

Let’s pretend someone starts out saving 10% of their salary from age 25 to age 65. They start out making $40,000 and that salary grows at 3% a year (with inflation). Let also assume they earn a 6% annual return. Here is the math:

By 40, they have saved over $80,000 with the overall balance growing to $125,000 from investment growth. This means that 65% of the balance comes from saving alone. As years go by that ratio begins to flip. 

By age 65, the contributions from saving equal 31% of your portfolio and 69% come from your investment growth on 6% annual growth. Small gains can add up over time even though it may not feel like it at the moment. 

Last week we celebrated Ted's 8th anniversary!

All things Berkshire

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Full video and highlights - Berkshire's annual meeting (Link)
Buffet on the advantage of volatility. “The nature of markets is that things get overpriced and things get underpriced. And when things get underpriced, we’ll take advantage of it.”

Munger on the best philosophy in life. "If you want one mantra, it’s from a gentleman who just died, Lee Kuan Yew who said - Figure out what works and do it.”  Under decades of Lee Kuan Yew’s leadership, Singapore transformed itself from a British outpost into a global trade and finance giant.

Buffet on finding a balance between saving and enjoyment. “I don’t necessarily think that for all families in all circumstances, saving money is necessarily the best thing to do. I think there’s a lot to be said for doing things that bring your family enjoyment rather than trying to save every dime. If you can’t be happy with 50 thousand or 100 thousand, you won’t be happy with 50 million.”  

Buffets thoughts on socialism.“I’m a card-carrying capitalist. I also think capitalism does involve regulation. It involves taking care of people who are left behind.” 

Munger on finding your specialty. “Not everybody can learn everything. No matter how hard you try, there is always some guy or girl who achieves more. My attitude is, so what? Do any of us need to be at the very top of the whole world? It’s ridiculous."

Buffet on the competitive investment field. “It is much more competitive now than when I started. I would do a whole lot of reading about many businesses and figure out on which ones I had some important knowledge and understanding that was different from most of my competitors. And I would try to figure out which companies I didn’t understand. It’s still an interesting game but it’s harder than it used to be.” 

Buffet on finding the right partners in life. “Having the right partners in life, particularly the right spouse, is enormously important. It’s more fun and you get more accomplished too. You just have a better time. I recommend finding the best person who will have you.”

Charlie Munger designs college dorms (Link)

Charlie Munger donates hundreds of millions of dollars toward buildings at major universities and institutions but these generous donations come with one caveat. The universities that want his money have to accept his ideas on building designs and Mr. Munger is not your traditional designer. 

He’s interested in the nuts and bolts and not aesthetic design. He dislikes curves, wasted space, shared bedrooms and bad acoustics. He likes using precast concrete and putting hallways and staircases on the outside of buildings.

He also likes anticipating how a building could be used differently in decades to come. Some are shocked at Mr. Munger’s ability to see into the future. For example, Mr. Munger designed Harvard-Westlake’s middle-school library, which opened in 2008, with several computer rooms. Munger insisted the computer rooms be made with removable walls. When students later switched to laptops, the computer rooms were easily converted for other uses. There are many other cases just like this.

Income and millennials

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US real median family income is finally above its last peak. 

2018 millennials and money survey (Link)
53% of millennials expect to become millionaires at some stage in their lives. Breaking it down further shows that 73% of male millennials and 38% of females expect to become millionaires at some stage in their lives. Maybe in a world of hyperinflation.

Only 50% of millennials invest in the stock market. This also includes employer-sponsored retirement and brokerage accounts. Male millennials are much more likely than female millennials to invest in the stock market at 66% vs. females at 39%.

When asked what they are saving for, vacations ranked the highest with 43% of millennials saving for their next vacation. The second highest was adding to their emergency funds or retirement accounts. 21% of millennials are saving for a down payment on a house.

Last week we celebrated Anna's and Harry's sixth anniversary! They shared some cheese and crackers and an EdgePoint carved cutting board!