This week in charts
Historical PE ratios and subsequent 10-year returns for U.S. large caps
Declining average lifespan of S&P 500 Index companies
Commercial bank loans
Mortgage origination by year
Chinese car sales in Europe
Chinese car exports
Rising capex and declining free cash flow trends of AI hyperscalers
Global equity market returns
Cycles of developed markets ex-U.S. outperformance
Private credit assets under management by type
S&P 500 Index and 10-Year Treasury correlation
U.S. housing affordability
Median age of first-time homebuyers
Ownership concentration of mega-cap tech stocks
US car market shows signs of fatigue as costs weigh on buyers
New car sales in the US are projected to decline in 2026 for the first time in four years, as a growing affordability crunch forces many lower-income buyers out of the market.
According to car services and data group Cox Automotive, sales are likely to fall from 16.3mn units in 2025 to 15.8mn units this year, while fellow forecaster Edmunds predicts a more modest year-on-year decline from 16.3mn to 16mn units amid sharply slowing demand for electric vehicles and signs of dwindling consumer confidence.
Sales figures released this week presented a mixed picture of demand in the final quarter of 2025, with Ford’s fourth-quarter US sales up 2.7 per cent on the previous year, while General Motors reported a fall of 7 per cent and Hyundai a fall of 1 per cent over the same timeframe.
Executives have cautioned that companies are likely to struggle to shield consumers from rising costs, stemming from the Trump administration’s tariff policies and withdrawal last year of a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicle purchases.
Hyundai chair Chung Eui-sun used his New Year’s message to warn that “this will be the year when the crisis factors we have long worried about become reality”. David Christ, Toyota’s head of US car sales, said this week that “prices are going to go up for us and for our competitors”.
The warnings came after the US auto market rode out a year of turbulence in 2025 to post its best year in sales since 2019.
Customers rushing to purchase vehicles ahead of the tariff rises and elimination of the EV subsidy boosted sales in the first three quarters of the year. Meanwhile, the effort by automakers to shield consumers from tariff-related cost increases helped the market reach full-year sales of 16.3mn units in 2025, up from 16mn units in 2024, according to Cox.
Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds, said automakers faced a dilemma: pivot back to producing smaller vehicles for lower-income consumers, or concentrate on producing larger and better equipped high-margin models for wealthier consumers unperturbed by the price rises.
Carmakers have largely resisted imposing tariff-related costs on customers in the form of higher sticker prices. But they are seeking other ways to pass on costs, including by boosting delivery fees and reintroducing more humble trim and equipment options.
Caldwell said several factors were also likely to prop up demand in 2026, including falling interest rates that could ease pressure on monthly payments and a return to the market of about 400,000 customers whose leases are due to expire.
Tyson Jominy, senior vice-president for data and analytics at consultancy JD Power, argued there was still “room in the system” to boost sales by offering more generous incentives while also increasing fleet sales to commercial customers.
But he acknowledged that would further squeeze margins already under strain. “They can’t just wave a wand and reduce prices. The challenge is to find a way to do it profitably.”
This week’s fun finds
There’s no better way to kick off the new year than a Mexican fiesta in the EdgePoint kitchen organized by Investment Analytics team member, Max. It’s a nice way to ease back into a routine and reconnect with fellow partners after the holidays.
Your Wait for These Space Events Is About to Pay Off
The thing about space is that you have to be patient. The universe does not bend to earthly time scales, and events are governed by the unalterable realities of physics and engineering. They will happen when they are good and ready.
Sometimes we have to wait much longer than expected for events in our solar system, and beyond. Especially in spaceflight, you might hear about events, learn they are postponed and then eventually hear about them again. In 2026, there is some hope that your patience will be rewarded.
