A few charts worth discussing
“The past 3.5 years have been an outlier for the S&P 500 Index. Maybe that is why we are finding a lot of ideas outside of the largest 500 U.S. businesses today.”
“OpenAI and Anthropic are currently experiencing the steepest revenue growth curves in enterprise technology history, with both companies rapidly scaling from near-zero to billions in revenue in under three years. Anthropic, in particular, has shown a 10x annual revenue growth rate since surpassing US$1B in annualized revenue. As of February 2026, it’s reached an estimated US$14B to US$19B annual run rate.”
“Despite growing quickly, OpenAI expects to become the largest cash burning project in corporate history by 10x. Time will tell if investors ultimately see a return on their investment.”
Other charts worth pointing out
Sector P/E discounts – Europe vs. U.S.
10-year annualized total returns for U.S. government bonds at historic lows
S&P 500 Index performance after major events
Over the past 30 days, the S&P 500 is down ~1.4% while the average stock moved ~10% in absolute terms
S&P 500 Index performance dispersion
World oil chokepoints – daily transit volumes for Petroleum/other liquids
Average tenure of S&P 500 Index companies has declined
GDP and equity market cap comparison
Condé Nast CEO says AI is a ‘death blow’ to Google search
Condé Nast, the publisher of Vogue and The New Yorker, is preparing for a future in which Google search is “no longer a meaningful driver” of its business, in a striking acknowledgment of how AI is upending the news industry.
Google accounted for a majority of visits to Condé Nast’s websites just a few years ago but only about a quarter last year, according to chief executive Roger Lynch. He described Google’s introduction of AI summaries as “another sort of death blow” in search traffic.
The shift underscores how quickly the economics of digital publishing are changing as generative AI tools alter how people find information online.
Condé Nast has struck licensing agreements with AI groups including OpenAI and Amazon, but has yet to reach a deal with Google. Lynch criticised what he described as a “pernicious” arrangement under which publishers must opt out of Google search in order to prevent their content from being scraped for AI-generated summaries.
Long synonymous with glossy magazines, Condé Nast has spent much of the past several years overhauling its structure under Lynch, who was hired by the billionaire Newhouse family in 2019 to revive the publisher after years of losses.
Lynch said Condé Nast increased revenue in 2025, despite search traffic declining more than expected, thanks to strong growth in subscriptions and other areas.
Revenue in 2025 was similar to 2021 levels, but the company is “far more profitable now”, he said. The Wall Street Journal reported that 2021 revenue was nearly $2bn. Gross margins have climbed about three percentage points in the past two to three years, according to Lynch.
An internal memo viewed by the FT said both revenue and profit increased last year. Condé Nast is privately held and does not report financial results publicly.
Despite its long history with print, the publisher now derived the majority of its revenue from digital operations, Lynch said, describing the past five years as a “culture shift” after a period of restructuring.
While Condé Nast has undergone several rounds of lay-offs in recent years, Lynch says last year’s profit growth was not driven by cost-cutting. “Operating expenses were relatively flat,” he said.
After dominating the pre-internet era with culture-defining magazines that made celebrities out of editors such as Anna Wintour, Condé Nast has faced a tougher landscape as entertainment has moved online.
Lynch has spent the past several years merging Condé Nast’s US and international operations. He has replaced some traditional editor-in-chief roles — including at US Vogue and Vanity Fair — with a “head of editorial content”.
Seven of Condé Nast’s largest brands — Vogue, GQ, The New Yorker, Wired, Vanity Fair, Architectural Digest and Condé Nast Traveler — now account for 85 per cent of the company’s revenue. The New Yorker reached record revenue, profits and subscribers last year, according to Lynch.
As part of that strategy, the group is selling LGBT+ title Them to Equalpride, the owner of Out, and exploring partnership or licensing models for Glamour and Self.
Lynch also argued that Condé Nast’s private ownership and lack of exposure to federal broadcast regulations insulated it from political pressures facing other US media groups, as US President Donald Trump has waged billion-dollar lawsuits against several major news organisations in his second term.
“When you look at what’s happening specifically here in the US, there are fewer and fewer journalistic organisations that are not being subject to political interference,” Lynch said, adding that he views it as a “competitive advantage” for Condé Nast.
The company’s restructuring, however, has brought job cuts and unrest. The company cut about 5 per cent of staff in 2023 and has faced union protests over lay-offs, while senior editors have left posts at Vogue China and Vogue UK.
This week’s fun finds
Grant Garmezy Molds a Full-Size Dakotaraptor from Molten Glass
Dakotaraptor, a fossilized skeleton of which was discovered a little more than 20 years ago by paleontologists in South Dakota, was an extremely lethal prehistoric predator. Its feathered body, powerful legs, and huge jaw gave it an advantage as it roamed its territory some 66 million years ago. But it was really its so-called “sickle claw,” a huge, taloned toe that measures 9.5 inches on the outer curve.
For artist Grant Garmezy, the ancient creature presented a unique opportunity to render a life-size sculptural version. Specializing in meticulously detailed, accurate representations of nature in glass, he took on the challenge of recreating the Dakotaraptor’s 14-foot length from snout to tail.
