Originally published in the 2025 Cymbria Annual Report, “Oh brother” is a hypothetical conversation between a brother and sister about managing future regret based on what others are ignoring in the market – both the major risks and the opportunities available in underappreciated areas.
An in-depth dive into one of Cymbria’s largest holdings, Restaurant Brands International. This is the latest commentary from Jason’s corner.
A few charts worth discussing
“The United States has become the #1 natural gas producer in the world, accounting for 25% of worldwide output. Despite this, much of U.S. production has been constrained due to a lack of export infrastructure. They’ve also put pressure on Canadian gas producers to sell natural gas into the American market.
“A shortage of transport capacity has resulted in producers occasionally selling natural gas at negative prices. However, there’s an industry change underway where midstream pipeline operators and liquid natural gas (LNG) operators are actively adding transportation and export capacity for natural gas."
“AI and machine learning are speeding up the early stages of drug discovery, raising fears that pharma and biotech companies could cut spending on the tools needed for clinical trials. The evidence so far shows that spending on wet lab (practical analysis), along with dry lab (theoretical data analysis), spending continues to grow. This is consistent with what management teams have been telling us – that AI is producing more hypotheses and candidates requiring validation, thus increasing the need for more work in the physical lab.”
- Claire Thornhill & Rhea Jandu
“Over the past decade, industry-wide R&D investment has shown steady growth even as new technologies have been introduced.”
- Claire Thornhill & Rhea Jandu
“I thought I was going to save money and not have to watch ads...What's old is new again!”
Other charts worth pointing out
AI-related industry performance
60/40 portfolio returns by asset class
U.S. tech debt as % of credit category
Investment grade tech debt vs. index – credit spreads
Gold vs. US$ – reserve assets
Developed markets ex-U.S. vs. U.S. – relative performance
Taiwanese exports by sector
Global transaction values
U.S. consumer spending
China throws the switch on battery buildout ‘equal to 10 times US capacity in 2025’
China’s leading battery makers have unveiled plans to add more than 600 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of new production capacity for the energy storage system (ESS) market in just the first two months of 2026, underscoring surging global demand for renewable energy infrastructure.
According to the GGII Energy Storage Research Institute, a Shenzhen-based consultancy, 19 mainland Chinese battery producers it tracks were set to invest a combined 180 billion yuan (US$26.3 billion) to build new lithium-ion battery factories.
Once completed – with some facilities due to come online in late 2026 – the projects will add up to 900GWh of annual production capacity. About 70 per cent of this would be dedicated to the ESS market, with the remaining 30 per cent serving the electric vehicle (EV) sector, GGII said in a report released on Wednesday.
ESS comprises batteries alongside battery management, power conversion and control systems that store excess energy generated from renewable sources, while providing backup power during outages and helping stabilise electricity grids.
One GWh of battery capacity can supply around 750,000 households for a year.
China has emerged as the dominant force in the global ESS industry, with mainland companies accounting for more than 80 per cent of the market. According to Seoul-based SNE Research, global ESS battery demand rose 79 per cent year on year to 550GWh in 2025.
As China’s ESS sector expands rapidly with government backing, the US is racing to catch up, as Washington moves to restructure supply chains to exclude Chinese-made batteries and components.
In 2025, newly installed battery storage capacity on the mainland rose 40 per cent year on year to a record 174.2GWh, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
But as expansion accelerates, policymakers are starting to take notice.
Four Chinese government departments – including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology – convened a symposium on April 9 to discuss early intervention measures aimed at curbing irrational competition in the power and energy storage battery sectors.
Officials said they would strengthen capacity monitoring, guide more orderly price competition and tighten regulatory oversight.
The bullish outlook comes as China ramps up battery exports. In the first 11 months of 2025, the country exported 4.25 billion lithium batteries worth more than US$69 billion, up 19.3 per cent and 25.6 per cent respectively from a year earlier, according to customs data.
This week’s fun finds
How NASA Achieved the Historic Artemis II Splashdown
Every crewed mission to the moon starts with fire and ends with water. Artemis II was no different. The spacecraft and crew began their journey on April 1, under the power of six rocket engines pouring flames that generated 8.8 million lb. of thrust. The mission ended Friday night, April 10, at 8:07 p.m. EDT, off the coast of San Diego. The Orion capsule hissed into the ocean, gently settling down atop the waves at just 17 miles per hour, under the control of three 116-ft. diameter parachutes. Less than two hours later the four astronauts—commander Reid Wiseman, pilot Victor Glover, and mission specialists Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen—will be safely on the deck of the USS John P. Murtha, successfully concluding the first crewed mission to the moon in 54 years.
